ILLINOIS POLLUTION CONTROL BOARD

June 21,

1990

CITY OF BRAIDWOOD,

)

Petitioner,

v.

)

 PCB 89—212

)

 (Variance)

ILLINOIS ENVIRONNENTAL

PROTECTION AGENCY,

Respondent.

CONCURRING OPINION

 (by B. Forcade and J.D.

 Dumelle):

While we agree with the majority that the variance should be

denied for all the reasons they state, we disagree on the health

issues.

 Therefore, we concur.

The question of the health impacts of drinking water

contaminated with radiological materials must be viewed in the

overall perspective.

 The only appropriate focus is to determine

how many people have been drinking water,

 at what level of

contamination,

 and then attempt to project what the health

impacts are likely to be.

 Most drinking water

 in Illinois

contains no measurable level of radium, and it

 is against this

bench mark that Braidwood’s water should be measured.

According to the Illinois Blue Book,

 Braidwood was

incorporated on March

4,

 1873, and had a population of 3,279

during the 1900 census.

 The current population

 is around 3500

(R.

 14).

 These numbers seem to imply that the size of the

population at risk has been stable as far as demographic

considerations.

 The record does not state specifically what

number of people are served by the high radium water.

 But,

 there

is evidence that water at 30.6 pCi/i

 is being distributed and

there is no evidence to show that significant portions of the

city are being supplied water that is substantially less

contaminated.

There

 is no evidence to tell us when the radium contaminated

deep wells were first placed

 in service so that the exposure time

to the contaminated water can be calculated.

 Certainly the

record indicates that present radiological

 levels were known to

the Agency and Braidwood as early as

1981

 (See Ex.

A).

 Also,

radiological analyses of samples taken in July,

 1979,

 showed

Gross Alpha contamination of 71.7 pCi/I

 (plus or minus

 12.0)

and

Gross Beta of 64.0 pCi/l

 (plus or minus 10.6).

 Dr. Toohey is

convinced that in this particular water supply,

 all the Gross

Alpha comes

 from radium

(R.

 51),

 so historical levels of radium

may have been more than double the present values.

 As a

conservative calculation of health risk,

 we can assume present

112—1(~

2

contamination exposure levels were constant for a period of time

representing the average human lifetime

 (say,

 72 years), then

modifications can be made to account for different contamination

levels or for.a shorter period of time that the deep wells might

have been in service.

Dr. Hallenbeck provided two formulae (Respondent’s Ex.

#6,

pp. 4-5) to calculate certain health impacts to a community.

The

first formula predicts the most probable estimate of excess

lifetime risk of bone or head sarcoma mortality.

 It is the end

result of the multiplication of several factors:

(2

x

10

~7)

(combined radium concentration)

 (population at risk)).

 This

result would then be multiplied by years of exposure that have

occurred for an estimate of the excess cancer mortality from

these sarcomas.

 The second formula predicts the upper 99

confidence limit for such exposures.

 It is the same as the

preceding formula except the number 3.1 replaces the number

2

in

the first term.

 Since the number of people historically exposed

seems constant and the concentration of contaminants seems

relatively constant, the mathematics

 is straightforward.

 If 3500

people from Braidwood have been drinking 30.6 pCi/i combined

radium water for 72 years

 then the most probable formula would

predict:

(2

 x l0~) (30.6 pCi/i)

 (3500)

 (72 years)

 1.54 human deaths

If the 99

 confidence level formula is used,

 it becomes:

(3.1

 x l0~) (30.6 pCi/i)

 (3500)

 (72 years)= 2.39 human deaths

If the 11 year old Gross Alpha test results more accurately

reflect long term radium levels

 (71.7 pCi/l), then the results

from the above formulae would be 3.61 human deaths and 5.60 human

deaths.

 If instead, the radium levels are as described but the

deep wells have only been

 in service for say 36 years, then the

results from the above formulae would be 0.77 human deaths and

1.20 human deaths.

In short,

 the estimate of the number of people already

killed by certain sarcomas from drinking Braidwood’s radium

contaminated water could be as low as 0.77

 or as high as 5.60

people from this city of 3500,

 depending upon the particular

assumptions that are made about historical contaminant levels and

well placement dates.

It is important to recognize what these numbers mean and

what they do not mean.

 They do not mean that from

 1 to

 6 seventy

year old people who lived all of their life in Braidwood died of

head or bone sarcomas.

 It means that out of a group that large

(3500), exposed for that long (36—72 years), at that level

 (30.6—

71.7 pCi/i), from

 1 to no more than

 6 fatal sarcomas would be

expected to have occurred; they could have occurred in middle

112—370

3

aged people or in children.

 In a similar manner the number of

total fatalities would remain the same if the population had a

significant turnover rate due to people moving, you would just

have to look at a larger group of people who had been exposed for

a shorter period of time.

Also, the present record does not reassure us that these are

the only health impacts from drinking radium contaminated water.

There is no constitutional right for a chemical to be presumed

innocent until proven guilty beyond reasonable doubt.

In

proceedings such as this one, we believe that the correct

standard to be used is whether the connection between a

contaminant and an adverse health impact is more likely true than

not true.

 No one has provided an opinion based on that standard.

Both Dr. Toohey and Dr. Hallenbeck cite to leukemia studies and

state that they remain unconvinced of the association,

 or that

the association is too tentative and cannot be used in a

quantitative risk assessment.

 This

 is a far cry short of a

positive determination that radium does not cause leukemia.

It

is also short of a conclusive determination that the evidence

showing radium does not cause leukemia is stronger than the

evidence showing that it does.

It is a profoundly rare situation when the evidence before

the Board shows estimated deaths from any cause at a level

between 0.77 and 5.60 people from lifetime exposure of a

 population of only 3500.

 We felt that the instant circumstance

was so unusual as to deserve additional comment.

~/~

J.

 D. Dumelle

Board Member

I, Dorothy M.

 Gunn,

 Clerk of the Illinois Pollution Control

Board, here~certifythat

 a~pveConcurring Opinion was filed

on the

//~-

 day of

 .~L:Z

 1990.

/

.~,

/~

~ -~-(

‘

Dorothy M. GÜnn, Clerk

Illinois po~.1utionControl Board

Board Member

112—37 1